After a major shakeup in the AFC standings this week, with key losses by the Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, and the Cincinnati Bengals, the New England Patriots are almost a lock to reach the playoffs, and the possibilities of going deep into the playoffs have increased dramatically as well according to the latest projections.
Here’s the weekly look at all the numbers:
98% chance to make the playoffs — Holding steady from last week
80% chance to win the AFC East. — That up from 76%, Bills are 20 percent, Dolphins are less than 1)
46% chance to earn the first-round bye (Only the No. 1 seed gets a bye in expanded playoffs) — That’s best in the AFC. Next up is Tennessee at 24. Bills have dropped to less than 1.
14% chance to win the Super Bowl — That’s tied for third in the entire NFL with the Cardinals.
The New York Times has New England with a:
99% chance to make the playoffs — Tied for highest in the AFC.
81% to win the AFC East — A 7-point jump after the Bills lost again.
47% to earn the first-round bye — Way ahead of next closest Tennessee (23%)
13% to win the Super Bowl — Second highest in the NFL. Bucs are 14%.
ESPN’s Football Power Index has the Patriots with a:
98.8% chance to make playoffs — That’s best in AFC
74.9% to win the AFC East
77.7% to make division round
50.4% to make conference finals
31.1% to make the Super Bowl
14.4% to win Super Bowl — Their chances of making it to the Super Bowl and winning are best in the AFC and third in the NFL, just slightly behind the Buccaneers and Cardinals.
BetMGM, the casino’s online sports betting arm, offers bets on the Patriots who are:
+700 to win the Super Bowl (improved from +750 last week)
+300 to win the AFC championship (that’s second among AFC teams. behind the Chiefs)
-400 to win the AFC East (up from -250 last week)
AFC playoff picture after 14 weeks:
1) Patriots: 9-4
2) Titans: 9-4
3) Chiefs: 9-4
4) Ravens: 8-5
5) Chargers: 8-5
6) Colts: 7-6
7) Bills: 7-6
— Wicked Boston (@WickedBoston_) December 13, 2021